Thailand’s political landscape has been shaken, and stirred, with the rise of Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 37 year old scion of a powerful and controversial political dynasty, to the position of prime minister.
Her appointment is widely seen as a continuation of the interference that has plagued Thai democracy, frustrating voters who had hoped for genuine change in last year’s general election.
In 2023, the Thai public decisively ended nearly a decade of military rule by electing a progressive party and a prime ministerial candidate who represented a break from the old power structures. It was the first time, too, that the Pheu Thai party had lost the primary vote in general elections for 2 decades.
Now, just 15 months later, the situation has drastically shifted. The victorious party has been banned, its candidate barred from office for a decade, and the prime minister who emerged from the political reshuffling was abruptly removed by a top court.
On Friday, Parliament selected Paetongtarn Shinawatra as Thailand’s new prime minister. Her rise to power follows the removal of Srettha Thavisin, the previous prime minister, by the Constitutional Court on ‘ethics violation’ charges. Paetongtarn’s rise to the ‘top job’, the result of two days of intense backroom negotiations, has seemingly brought an end to the brief political limbo, though it has deepened the frustration of many Thais who had hoped for a new era of democracy.
Still, others see her quick nomination and successful parliamentary election, as demonstration of continuity and stability in Thailand’s nascent democracy.
But for many, the swift changes in leadership, driven by court rulings, and political wheeling and dealing, have left many voters feeling disenfranchised.
They voted for a change. Instead they’ve ended up with the second best option doing a deal with the ‘old guard’ to form a coalition.
Paetongtarn’s appointment surprised many political pundits, along with plenty of Thais. Many remain weary of the prospect of another ‘Shinawatra’ heading up the country’s government.
Paetongtarn, initially reluctant to enter the fray, had primarily served in advisory roles before being thrust into the national spotlight. After last year’s election, where she served as, basically, the head of the Pheu Thai cheer squad, she came the party’s leader. She also had her second baby during the 2023 election campaign.
But as the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister ousted in a 2006 military coup, and later convicted for various political misdemeanours, her family name is both her greatest asset and her biggest challenge.
Thaksin, despite living in self-imposed exile for 17 years, has remained a central figure in Thai politics. His influence was evident in last year’s election, where Paetongtarn was nominated as one of the prime ministerial candidates for the Pheu Thai Party.
Her youth was seen as appealing to a new generation of voters, particularly those drawn to the opposition.
However, the return of Thaksin and the rise of his daughter have reignited tensions with the establishment. Thaksin’s return to Thailand, coupled with his avoidance of an eight-year prison sentence for corruption, was seen as part of a deal with the conservative establishment – “…allow Thaksin to return and we’ll form a coalition with you, even though we’ve been in a political battle with you for two decades”.
But this uneasy alliance appears to be fraying, with new legal challenges emerging against Thaksin and his allies. The legal challenges have emerged from former Senators – all handpicked by the Junta and the “military” government – or the Election Commission and Constitutional Court – also nominated by the government and Senators of the former government.
The recent upheavals continue to cast a long shadow over Thailand’s political future. The cycle of elections, party dissolutions, protests and coups has exhausted most Thais. Any coup over the past 20 years is met often with a shrug of the shoulders rather than outrage or surprise.
The country’s once-thriving economy has also stalled with neighbouring countries forging ahead. Young professionals are increasingly looking for jobs overseas, partly due to the political instability and the ongoing interference from the elite, royalist and conservative forces.
Despite the challenges, some remain optimistic. Thailand continues to have a vibrant civil society, and voter engagement remains high. Even with the recent “turmoil”, there has been a continuity of government and no civil unrest.
The banned Move Forward Party, which won the most votes in last year’s election, has been succeeded by the People’s Party, which is already preparing to continue the fight in the next election. In reality, just a name change and a swap of the MPs from the old party to the new. The “new” People’s Party still has the largest number of MPs in the parliament, even though they sit in the opposition benches.
Kasit Piromya, a former foreign minister, highlighted the generational divide in Thai politics, noting that the establishment is led by an older generation, while the new opposition is made up of younger individuals with fresh ideas.
“This is the last hurrah of the establishment to retain power”.
Even with Paetongtarn at the helm, her Pheu Thai Party have the challenge ahead of them with the People’s Party tipped to win the next election, even though its two years away.
